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Internet Identifier Consumption (IIC)

Overview

We understand there to be some controversy regarding predictions of IPv4 address space exhaustion, and under ARIN sponsorship, CAIDA provides an independent analysis regarding possible future trajectories in address space exhaustion based on the best publically available data. This analysis includes some speculative inference regarding a range of possible responses to policy changes based on observed effects of previous policy changes, e.g., changes in multi-homing behavior.

We are also interested in projections of exhaustion of other resources, e.g., IPv6 address space and AS number exhaustion, as resources permit, as well as longer horizon analyses of the growing incongruities between the routing system and observed Internet topology. Central to CAIDA's mission is supporting the global Internet community with objective, empirically-based analyses in pursuit of the most enlightened Internet public policy possible.

Analysis of IPv4 exhaustion

Analysis of AS Number exhaustion

Data links

IPv6 data links

IPv6 deployment

AS number resource consumption

Discussion links

Miscellaneous Links

  • RFC 1744
    • " It is also appropriate to conclude that continuation of current address space management policies run a very strong risk of restrictive and monopoly-based trading in address space, with consequence of the same trading practices being expressed within the deployed Internet itself.
    • The immediate action considered to be most appropriately aligned to both the interests of the Internet community and the broader public community is to examine Internet address space management structures which include pricing as well as policy components within the overall management mechanism, and to examine the application of such mechanisms to both the existing IPv4 address space, and to that of any refinement or successor Internet technology base."
  • Article: OMB: No new money for IPv6 - An article by FWB Media group on government funding for IPv6.
    • "Because the adoption of IPv6 is a worldwide trend, agencies must follow suit sooner rather than later, he added. In addition to replacing the current IP, IPv6 presents still unknown new possibilities. “We can’t predict what they will be,” he said, but the government must prepare."
  • IPv6 Network Architecture Protection - IETF Network Working Group
    • " It is frequently believed that through its session-oriented operation, NAT puts in an extra barrier to keep the private network protected from evil outside influences. Since a NAT device typically keeps state only for individual sessions, attackers, worms, etc. cannot exploit this state to attack a host in general and on any port. This benefit may be partially real, however, experienced hackers are well aware of NAT devices and are very familiar with private address space, and have devised methods of attack (such as trojan horses) that readily penetrate NAT boundaries. For these reasons the sense of security provided by NAT are actually false."
  • Considerations on the IPv6 Host density Metric - IETF Individual Submission
    • "This memo provides an analysis of the Host Density metric as currently used to guide registry allocations of IPv6 unicast address blocks. This document contrasts the address efficiency as currently adopted in the allocation of IPv4 network addresses and that used by the IPv6 protocol. It is noted that for large allocations there are very significant variations in the target efficiency metric between the two approaches"
  • RFC 1715
    • "I guess this explains well why I feel that 128 bits is entirely safe for the next 30 year. The level of constraints that we will have to incorporate in the address assignment appears very much in line with what we know how to do, today."
  • Internet Evolution and IPv6 - Plenary presentation, Huston
  • http://www.potaroo.net/presentations/2005-09-07-asns.pdf
  • http://www.potaroo.net/presentations/2005-09-07-apnic-plenary.pdf
  • http://www.potaroo.net/presentations/2005-09-06-looking-forward.pdf
  • http://www.potaroo.net/ispcol/2005-09/pp.html
  • BGP movie (mpg format)
  • An Empirical Evaluation of IP Address Space Occupancy - Technical report by the Information Sciences Institute, ISI-TR-598. Pryadkin, Y. , Lindell, R., Bannister, J., Govindan, R. November 2004, 14 pages.
    • "In this paper we describe an empirical, longitudinal study of IPv4 address space occupancy. We conducted a number of Internet-wide IP address surveys that re- sulted in a combined dataset of about 102 million distinct, live IP addresses, comprising one of the most extensive, long-lived, and large-scale studies conducted to date. We analyze the distributions of such addresses inside common BGP prefixes and ARIN allocations. We combine live IP address datasets with Internet router maps to develop approximate host-level Internet maps and examine the topological distribution of addresses for such maps. We find that the address space is sparsely and unevenly utilized, and that the utilization across prefixes is well matched by an exponential distribution. We find also that the live addresses are distributed across the topology in a heavy-tailed fashion: some routers have a very large number of attached hosts. We apply the data to identify and analyze structural vulnerabilities of the network."
  • Commentary on Inter-Domain Routing in the Internet - G. Huston, Editor September 2000
    • "This document examines the various longer term trends visible within the characteristics of the Internet's BGP table and identifies a number of operational practices and protocol factors that contribute to these trends. The potential impacts of these practices and protocol properties on the scaling properties of the inter-domain routing space are examined."
  • http://www.circleid.com/posts/whither_dns/
  • Financial Incentives for Route Aggregation and Efficient Address Utilization in the Internet - Yakov Rekhter, Paul Resnick, Steve Bellovin
  • The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World - Peter Schwartz
    • p.6: "He who prevents the future lies even if he tells the truth."
    • p.9: "The end result [of scenario planning] however is not an accurate picture of tomorrow, but better decisions about the future."
  • http://ops.ietf.org/lists/v6ops/v6ops.2004/msg01800.html
  • Census and Survey of the Visible Internet (extended) - John Heidemann, Yuri Pradkin, Ramesh Govindan, Christos Papadopoulos, Genevive Bartlett, and Joseph Bannister USC/Information Sciences Institute

Scenario Planning References


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