Internet Identifier Consumption (IIC)
We understand there to be some controversy regarding predictions of IPv4 address space exhaustion, and under ARIN sponsorship, CAIDA provides an independent analysis
regarding possible future trajectories in address space exhaustion based on the best publically available data. This analysis includes some speculative inference regarding a range of possible responses to policy changes based on observed effects of previous policy changes, e.g., changes in multi-homing behavior.
We are also interested in projections of exhaustion of other resources, e.g., IPv6 address space and AS number exhaustion, as resources permit, as well as longer horizon analyses of the growing incongruities between the routing system and observed Internet topology. Central to CAIDA's mission is supporting the global Internet community with objective, empirically-based analyses in pursuit of the most enlightened Internet public policy possible.
Analysis of IPv4 exhaustion
Analysis of AS Number exhaustion
IPv6 data links
AS number resource consumption
- RFC 1744
- " It is also appropriate to conclude that continuation of current
address space management policies run a very strong risk of
restrictive and monopoly-based trading in address space, with
consequence of the same trading practices being expressed within the
deployed Internet itself.
- The immediate action considered to be most appropriately aligned to
both the interests of the Internet community and the broader public
community is to examine Internet address space management structures
which include pricing as well as policy components within the overall
management mechanism, and to examine the application of such
mechanisms to both the existing IPv4 address space, and to that of
any refinement or successor Internet technology base."
- Article: OMB: No new money for IPv6 - An article by FWB Media group on government funding for IPv6.
- "Because the adoption of IPv6 is a worldwide trend, agencies must follow suit sooner rather than later, he added. In addition to replacing the current IP, IPv6 presents still unknown new possibilities. “We can’t predict what they will be,” he said, but the government must prepare."
- IPv6 Network Architecture Protection - IETF Network Working Group
- " It is frequently believed that through its session-oriented
operation, NAT puts in an extra barrier to keep the private network
protected from evil outside influences. Since a NAT device typically
keeps state only for individual sessions, attackers, worms, etc.
cannot exploit this state to attack a host in general and on any
port. This benefit may be partially real, however, experienced
hackers are well aware of NAT devices and are very familiar with
private address space, and have devised methods of attack (such as
trojan horses) that readily penetrate NAT boundaries. For these
reasons the sense of security provided by NAT are actually false."
- Considerations on the IPv6 Host density Metric - IETF Individual Submission
- "This memo provides an analysis of the Host Density metric as
currently used to guide registry allocations of IPv6 unicast address
blocks. This document contrasts the address efficiency as currently
adopted in the allocation of IPv4 network addresses and that used by
the IPv6 protocol. It is noted that for large allocations there are
very significant variations in the target efficiency metric between
the two approaches"
- RFC 1715
- "I guess this explains well why I feel that 128 bits is entirely safe
for the next 30 year. The level of constraints that we will have to
incorporate in the address assignment appears very much in line with
what we know how to do, today."
- Internet Evolution and IPv6 - Plenary presentation, Huston
- BGP movie (mpg format)
- An Empirical Evaluation of IP Address Space Occupancy - Technical report by the Information Sciences Institute, ISI-TR-598. Pryadkin, Y. , Lindell, R., Bannister, J., Govindan, R. November 2004, 14 pages.
- "In this paper we describe an empirical, longitudinal study of
IPv4 address space occupancy. We conducted a number of Internet-wide
IP address surveys that re- sulted in a combined dataset of about
102 million distinct, live IP addresses, comprising one of the
most extensive, long-lived, and large-scale studies conducted
to date. We analyze the distributions of such addresses inside
common BGP prefixes and ARIN allocations. We combine live IP
address datasets with Internet router maps to develop approximate
host-level Internet maps and examine the topological distribution
of addresses for such maps. We find that the address space is
sparsely and unevenly utilized, and that the utilization across
prefixes is well matched by an exponential distribution. We find
also that the live addresses are distributed across the topology
in a heavy-tailed fashion: some routers have a very large
number of attached hosts. We apply the data to identify and
analyze structural vulnerabilities of the network."
- Commentary on Inter-Domain Routing in the Internet - G. Huston, Editor September 2000
- "This document examines the various longer term trends visible within the characteristics of the Internet's BGP table and identifies a number of operational practices and protocol factors that contribute to these trends. The potential impacts of these practices and protocol properties on the scaling properties of the inter-domain routing space are examined."
- Financial Incentives for Route Aggregation and Efficient Address Utilization in the Internet - Yakov Rekhter, Paul Resnick, Steve Bellovin
- The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World - Peter Schwartz
- p.6: "He who prevents the future lies even if he tells the truth."
- p.9: "The end result [of scenario planning] however is not an accurate picture of tomorrow, but better decisions about the future."
- Census and Survey of the Visible Internet (extended) - John Heidemann, Yuri Pradkin, Ramesh Govindan, Christos Papadopoulos, Genevive Bartlett, and Joseph Bannister USC/Information Sciences Institute
Scenario Planning References